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                                                                                                                                                                          www.xpj156789.com点击进入官方直营网站!:瑞达期货:沪胶减仓,期价小幅收涨

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:瑞达期货:沪胶减仓,期价小幅收涨)

                                                                                                                                                                          盘面情况: RU1905减仓增量,期价小幅收涨。当日收于11660,较上一交易日+0.26%;成交量325716;持仓357106,-3134,基差-510,+20;Ru5-9月价差-240,+5。

                                                                                                                                                                          消息:1、2018年中国进口天然及合成橡胶700.8万吨,同比降2%。2、2018年韩国合成橡胶出口同比增2.9%,出口中国微降0.2%。3、11月马来西亚天然橡胶产量同比降11.2%。

                                                                                                                                                                          市场报价:上海市场17年国营全乳(云象)报价在11150(+50)元/吨;越南3L报价10850(+50)元/吨;泰国3号烟片12600(+50)元/吨;云南17年全乳胶10600(+50)元/吨。泰国合艾原料市场生胶片43.7(+0.61)泰铢/公斤;泰三烟片46.59(+0.82)泰铢/公斤;田间胶水38(-1.5)泰铢/公斤;杯胶35.5(0)泰铢/公斤。合成胶:华东地区齐魯石化丁苯橡胶1502市场价11900(0)元/吨;顺丁橡胶市场价12000(0)元/吨。上一交易日青岛保税区市场报盘积极性略有下调,询盘积极性下调,整体成交情况不活跃,美金胶成交价格下跌,人民币胶成交价格下跌。

                                                                                                                                                                          仓单库存:仓单410010吨,-180吨,依然处于高位。

                                                                                                                                                                          主力持仓:前二十名多头持仓83577,-325;空头持仓119938,-1240。空头仍占据上风。

                                                                                                                                                                          总结:虽然目前国内天然橡胶产区进入停割期,但泰国产区仍处于割胶旺季,今年全球天胶产量仍将保持增长势头。近期泰国农业部部长格里萨达称,为了解决供应过剩问题,该国将砍伐老树,目标是将当前450万吨的产量削减至300万吨,将420万公顷的种植面积减少至240万公顷。考虑到目标数量太大且泰国以私人拥有胶园为主,政策推行存在难度,加上减产关系到市场份额,因此实际执行力度存疑。从库存来看,交易所库存和保税区外库存均持续增加,本周轮胎厂开工率出现大幅下滑,主要因春节将至部分轮胎厂开始放假,后市需求将面临较明显的下降。技术上,ru1905合约持仓减少,短期关注下方11500附近支撑,操作上建议在11500-11800区间交易。

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